Estimating lossed money based on pirated software is just dumb. Let me make an example.
Here's John Doe, he's a 17 year old kid that buys all games he likes. Yes thats fine and good. However, he also downloads a lot of games and applications becaues he can not afford them all. Or afford them AT all. Lets say he downloaded 3d studio max from the net, because there is no way he could afford that. However he wants to learn 3d rendering and therefore will do it somehow.
Lets say that 3d studio max would NOT be piratable (aka uncrackable). Would John ever use it then? Most likely not as he can not afford it. How can it be a loss for a software company if the person never would have the possiblity to get it legally anyway?
I am not defending piracy in any way. It is wrong. But the way they make up numbers and how much they "loose" is just wrong. Potentioal loss for something that never would happen makes it sound a lot more serious. When in reality the actual loss is much smaller even if there of course is a lot of pirates that could afford the software or would use it in a company.
Same goes for movies and games. John is still in the game here. He buys all games he likes and supports the companies that he thinks deserves it. Ok, thats good in a way. But would John be able to decide wich games to buy? Would he be forced to buy and after that see if the game is worth having or if it is just waste of money. Some product made by a company with a cool cover and only to get some easy cash. Thats where the biggest problem is IMO. Demos are getting rare, atleast they are not as many as a few years ago. But if John would not have downloaded a few of those games, he never might have bought them either. Or he could've bought a few games that he just hates but can't refund for a new one that he might like.
Movies, John goes to the cinema every now and then to see some great movies. However he also downloads a few. Perhaps he downloads a lot of movies he never would've gone to the cinema for. Maybe because they are bad or perhaps because they are unknown in his country. If there is a movie he really likes he might get it on DVD when released. If he downloaded a movie he never would've payed for in the cinema there is no loss for there either. What could've happen is that he never would've seen the movie and not put any money into it anyway. Or he might like it and decide its worth buying wich he otherwise may have thought it was not.
To go a little further, we can look back in time. 20-30 years ago, even 40 years. People copied cassettes all the time, traded cassettes with music taped from the radio. Even made copies of LP's and sold through ads in papers or similar. Noone was as active hunting down them back then even if it in reality was almost as easy as getting music now.
With that said I'll leave the discussion for now (gotta go to sleep and don't feel like typing anymore
).