I don't think it is gonna take up to 2 years. If we look at the gamecube it never reached the same popularity as the xbox, it doesn't have as much great games and it also uses special discs (8cm DVDr's took a while before hitting the consumer market and YES I am aware that standard DVDr can be used if the cover is removed).
The xbox 360 will get a LOT of focus in the hacking scene when it comes out. I am sure of that and people will sit with it 24/7 until they have hacked it.
The Gamecube does not have that much of an advanced protection after all. Before the chips came you could play backups using a preloader disc and then put in your backups.
But sure the xbox security is about as bad as it can get. Too small bios size to contain a decent check the same time as it can boot the xbox. Sniffable buses and a flashable standard TSOP included...
