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It all depends on the crackers. Maybe they will, maybe they won't. Only time will tell. The original Morrowind also had some cracks without video, so I'm assuming it's more difficult to crack the movie playback too.
There should be no protection on the Tribunal cd, but I think it requires the Morrowind cd in the drive right ? You can make an image with CloneCD and mount that using Daemon Tools. It's fairly easy and will work without any crack. Or you can patiently wait until someone makes a better nocd.
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